And the winner is...

Well, certainly this blog isn't going to be winning any awards soon. My renewed pledge to blog more has not gone well. I've been fairly busy but I think I need to figure out how to blog from my phone. But, enough of that. Today, is the Academy Awards and I am ready for the show.

Unlike previous years, my wife and I have actually seen a good number of the movies nominated for awards. For example, we have seen 5 of the 10 movies nominated for best picture, including: The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and Winter's Bone.

I want to separate my predictions from my feelings. For each of the big categories, I will give my own personal feelings and then make a prediction.

My favorite movie of the 5 best picture nominees that I saw this year is The Social Network. I actually really liked all 5 of the nominees that I watched. But, I am a sucker for Aaron Sorkin's writing and dramatic style. The Social Network was simply terrific. My guess from the press around this is that The King's Speech will win.

I actually think the supporting actor/actress categories are more interesting this year than the leading category. Looking at the nominees it appears to me that the line is getting awfully thin between leading and supporting work in a movie. I will start with the Leading category. It's clear that Colin Firth is going to win the Leading Actor award. The only other performance I saw this year was that of Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network. Frankly, Eisenberg was so good that I think most of the country thinks he is Mark Zuckerberg. But, Colin Firth was magical in his portrayal of King George VI. He gets the nod for preference and prediction.

I strongly feel the best performance by a woman in a leading role this year was that of Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right. Of course, she's not nominated... her co-star, Annette Bening is. Jennifer Lawrence was awfully good in the Winter's Bone but while I really enjoyed that movie I wasn't overwhelmed by Ms. Lawrence's performance. She was good, I'm just not sure it was a tough enough role to get the win. I'm thus giving it to Annette Bening as my preference. I did not see Natalie Portman's performance in Black Swan. I don't have any interest in seeing the movie. I'm going to guess that Annette Bening wins the award.

I did see 4 of the 5 performances which garnered Supporting Actor nominees. All 4 of them were just absolutely terrific. I'm picking Christian Bale. I frankly don't know how you can call his character a supporting character in The Fighter movie. Afterwards, my wife asked me so who was the movie about Dicky or Micky. It seems to me it was about Micky, the character played by Mark Wahlberg but this was a movie dominated by Christian Bale's character. He should have been nominated for best actor. Honestly, I wouldn't be unhappy if John Hawkes was given the award as well. He too was terrific. His role in Winter's Bone though was not nearly as substantial as Christian Bale's in The Fighter. My prediction: I'm going to guess that the Academy gives the award to Geoffrey Rush. He is a great actor and he did a magnificent job in The King's Speech. His role like that of Christian Bale's was hardly just a supporting role. And, I must give a shout out to Mark Ruffalo who did an excellent job in The Kids Are All Right.

That leaves, Supporting Actress. I saw 3 of these 5 nominees. Two of them were in The Fighter and the other is Helena Bonham Carter from The King's Speech. I really liked Helena Bonham Carter's character but I just can't compare her work in the movie to that put in by Amy Adams and Melissa Leo in The Fighter. I'd be happy to see either Amy Adams or Melissa Leo win. I'm going to root for Melissa Leo because the role was so different from what I've seen her do before. She was also a star in Treme which gives her some bonus props from me. I actually am clueless about who will win this one. I will predict Helena Bonham Carter.

I'll be interested to see who wins the writing categories. There are some wonderfully written, intelligent movies nominated. Adapted screenplay seems like a tough battle between Aaron Sorkin and the folks that wrote Winter's Bone. The original screenplay category has The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, and The King's Speech. It seems like The King's Speech will win given the accolades but I would be thrilled to see The Kids Are All Right win.

My predictions have The King's Speech just about running the table. Somehow, that seems unlikely but it does seem like the sort of movie with the sort of performances and performers that the Academy tends to like.

We will see. It should be a good show made much more enjoyable because I've seen many of the movies.